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I'm usually pretty good at predicting these things... and that's not bragging this year, where most of the categories appear to be coronations. But there will be a surprise or two.Best Picture - Little Miss Sunshine
Yes, I'm afraid so. It's all Crash's fault. The Academy voters are developing a taste for overrated, obvious, Sundancey films with ensemble casts. Just as Crash was awarded for finally exposing America's ugly racist tendencies, Sunshine will be rewarded for knocking those tasteless children's beauty pageants down a peg or two. I realized a few months ago that the most painful film festival imaginable would be a retrospective of the last 15 years of Best Picture Oscar winners, shown in chronological order (or shown in one marathon event, with Roberto Benigni set loose in the theatre as a bonus).
Best Director - Martin Scorsese, The Departed
Finally. Although it would be hilarious if Eastwood beat him again.
Best Actor - Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
This would be gratifying for me to see, having lost all hope for Forest a few years ago during his wilderness years (directing Waiting To Exhale, co-starring in Battlefield Earth). There was talk early in the race of it being between Whitaker and Peter O'Toole but that talk has since died down.
Best Actress - Helen Mirren, The Queen
Duh!
Best Supporting Actor - Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
The beneficiary of the 'Anyone But Norbit' movement, which also works out to be a semi-career achievement award for him. I wish the Academy had the good sense to give it to Mark Wahlberg, who was fantastic in The Departed, basing the abusive character he played on a real life cop who continually busted his balls when he was a young punk in Dorchester.
Best Supporting Actress - Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
People love that "And I Am Telling You I'm Not Going" song and want to give someone an award for belting it out.
Al Gore will win for documentary. Children of Men will win for cinematography. Original screenplay will go to Sunshine, despite its similarities to National Lampoon's Vacation. The Departed will win for editing and adapted screenplay. The Lives of Others will get foreign language film. Celine Dion will do her best to fuck up the Ennio Morricone lifetime achievement award. And Britney Spears will show up unannounced, painted from head to toe in gold.
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Current Vegas Betting Lines:
Odds that the broadcast will wrap up on schedule (150-1)
Odds that Ellen DeGeneres will make a sly reference to the fact that she’s the first openly gay personality to host the Oscars: Right off the top (2-1); Never (3-1); During a commercial break (8-5); The first time the cameras start to linger on Tom Cruise (5-1)
Deceased star likely to get most applause when the obituary reel is shown: Robert Altman (3-1); Peter Boyle (5-1); Jack Warden (10-1); Glenn Ford (15-1); Jack Palance (2-1); Don Knotts (30-1)
Odds that the Best Foreign Film winner will say something critical about US foreign policy (3-1)
Odds that the Best Foreign Film winner will say something complimentary about Hollywood movies (50-1)
Odds the most long-winded speech will come from: Eddie Murphy (20-1); Martin Scorsese (10-1); Peter O’Toole (6-1); Jennifer Hudson (20-1); Academy President Sid Ganis (Even)
Most likely political statement made by a winner from the stage: Global warming is an issue that the world must address (3-1); The post-colonial exploitation of Africa by the rich must cease (5-1); I don’t know how I’m going to link my movie to the slaughter in Iraq, but I’m gonna do it anyway (8-5); We should stop insulting the public’s intelligence with this crass promotional gimmick disguised as an awards show (75-1)
Most likely embarrassing unscripted moment: An inebriated Nick Nolte will lose his place in his teleprompted remarks and fail to extricate himself (6-1); A flop-sweating Billy Bob Thornton will remind the audience that it still isn’t too late to catch The Astronaut Farmer at the multiplex next door (10-1); Ryan O’Neil will rush the stage with a fireplace poker (4-1)
· Most likely embarrassing scripted moment: Host Ellen DeGeneres will jump up and down and claim to be in love with Katie Holmes (9-1); Jennifer Aniston will attempt to kiss Cate Blanchett to publicize her upcoming appearance on Dirt (6-5); Special guest presenter Al Gore will attempt to read his lines (7-2)
Most unlikely nominated winner: Will Smith (25-1); Rinko Kikuchi (20-1); Judi Dench (15-1); Mark Wahlberg (40-1)
The elephant in the room that a minor presenter will finally mention: Dreamgirls, a universally well-received but largely black project, wasn’t nominated for Best Picture (2-1) Isn’t it time we stopped awarding an Oscar for “best animated feature”? (15-1) We should have given Scorsese his Director Oscar for Goodfellas so we wouldn’t have to pretend a dog like The Departed is pure gold (3-2); This is the lamest bunch of nominees since The Greatest Show on Earth won Best Picture in 1952 (10-1)
Odds that Liza Minnelli, freshly divorced from David Gest, will now try and punch out Russell Crowe when ushers attempt to move him into her seat: 20-1
Odds that Academy voters will be able to tell Dreamgirls’ three nominated songs apart (7-2)
Most likely sentimental winner: Eddie Murphy (8-1); Alan Arkin (5-1) Martin Scorsese (2-1) Peter O’Toole (Even)
Actor least likely to be trusted to present an award: Rip Torn (10-1) Mel Gibson (15-1) Mickey Rourke (35-1) Lindsay Lohan (50-1) Courtney Love (85-1)
Sascha Baron Cohen is most likely to show up in character as: Borat (8-5) Ali G. (5-1) Gay race-car driver Jean Girard (9-4) Peter O’Toole (8-1)
Odds that Xenu will arise through a volcano in the Kodak Theater parking lot, spirit Tom Cruise and John Travolta away in a DC-8-shaped rocket ship, and bring history as we know it to an end: (14-1)
All right - at least Little Miss Sunshine didn't win.
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